Forecast Return vs. Actual Return
On 5 September 2018, we calculated the implied return of each Kenyan bank stock.
The table below is a comparison of these forecast returns to each stock’s actual return over the following twelve months.
| Company | Beg. Share Price (5.9.2018) | Cur. Share Price (31.1.2019) | Dividends | Implied Return (5.9.2018) | Actual Return (31.1.2019) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. NIC Group | Ksh29.00 | Ksh33.75 | Ksh0.00 | 22.0% | 16.4% |
| 2. I&M Holdings | Ksh102.00 | Ksh95.00 | Ksh0.00 | 17.6% | -6.9% |
| 3. KCB Group | Ksh44.50 | Ksh40.70 | Ksh0.00 | 15.9% | -8.5% |
| 4. Stanbic Holdings | Ksh101.00 | Ksh90.00 | Ksh2.25 | 15.6% | -8.7% |
| 5. Diamond Trust Bank Kenya | Ksh189.00 | Ksh149.25 | Ksh0.00 | 13.7% | -21.0% |
| 6. Equity Group | Ksh44.75 | Ksh40.90 | Ksh0.00 | 12.4% | -8.6% |
| 7. Co-operative Bank of Kenya | Ksh16.75 | Ksh16.10 | Ksh0.00 | 12.4% | -3.9% |
| 8. Barclays Bank of Kenya | Ksh11.15 | Ksh11.50 | Ksh0.20 | 11.8% | 4.9% |
| 9. Standard Chartered Bank of Kenya | Ksh205.00 | Ksh194.75 | Ksh5.00 | 11.4% | -2.6% |
| 10. National Bank of Kenya | Ksh5.45 | Ksh5.96 | Ksh0.00 | 2.8% | 9.4% |
| 11. HF Group | Ksh6.90 | Ksh6.94 | Ksh0.00 | -1.1% | 0.6% |